{"id":6950,"date":"2022-11-21T10:53:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T09:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iefc.net\/?p=6950"},"modified":"2023-11-17T14:17:47","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T13:17:47","slug":"what-are-novel-decision-approaches-to-deal-with-multiple-risks-and-uncertainties-in-forest-resource-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.plantedforests.org\/pt\/what-are-novel-decision-approaches-to-deal-with-multiple-risks-and-uncertainties-in-forest-resource-management\/","title":{"rendered":"Quais s\u00e3o as novas abordagens de decis\u00e3o para lidar com m\u00faltiplos riscos e incertezas na gest\u00e3o dos recursos florestais?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Danos causados pelo vento na Floresta Negra, Maio de 2022 (Fotografia: Rasoul Yousefpour)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A optimiza\u00e7\u00e3o da gest\u00e3o florestal e mobiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos pede n\u00e3o s\u00f3 a integra\u00e7\u00e3o de m\u00faltiplos servi\u00e7os, mas tamb\u00e9m que sejam tidos em conta os m\u00faltiplos riscos que afetam os processos e fun\u00e7\u00f5es florestais (Yousefpour et al. 2017). Al\u00e9m disso, as altera\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas est\u00e3o a desafiar a resili\u00eancia das florestas e espera-se que alterem a severidade e frequ\u00eancia das perturba\u00e7\u00f5es bi\u00f3ticas e abi\u00f3ticas. A avalia\u00e7\u00e3o de m\u00faltiplos riscos do ecossistema florestal \u00e9 a chave para adaptar os recursos florestais \u00e0s condi\u00e7\u00f5es futuras e \u00e0s exig\u00eancias da sociedade em mat\u00e9ria de servi\u00e7os do ecossistema. Al\u00e9m disso, os processos florestais est\u00e3o sujeitos a incertezas devido \u00e0 din\u00e2mica dos sistemas naturais e \u00e0 profunda incerteza inerente \u00e0s altera\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas futuras, uma vez que n\u00e3o somos capazes de atribuir probabilidades ao conjunto de todos os cen\u00e1rios plaus\u00edveis de altera\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas. Assim, as abordagens de base processual  s\u00e3o essenciais para considerar as mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas e produzir an\u00e1lises econ\u00f3micas face aos resultados da gest\u00e3o florestal com base na din\u00e2mica dos ecossistemas florestais e no calend\u00e1rio das interven\u00e7\u00f5es de gest\u00e3o ao longo do horizonte de planeamento. Qualquer an\u00e1lise econ\u00f3mica deve ter em conta o balan\u00e7o entre despesas e receitas reportados a um dado ano de refer\u00eancia para que com base nessa informa\u00e7\u00e3o se possa decidir sobre alternativas de gest\u00e3o florestal. Os conceitos de Valor Atual L\u00edquido e Valor Esperado do Solo s\u00e3o utilizados na silvicultura para avaliar  prefer\u00eancias ao longo do tempo utilizando uma taxa de atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e3o necess\u00e1rias abordagens de tomada de decis\u00e3o para lidar com as quest\u00f5es acima mencionadas. A tomada de decis\u00e3o robusta (RDM) proporciona uma oportunidade \u00fanica para optimizar os resultados florestais face a cen\u00e1rios de profunda incerteza (Yousefpour et al. 2018). A RDM troca a optimiza\u00e7\u00e3o nominal por robustez em condi\u00e7\u00f5es extremas sujeitas a um conjunto de cen\u00e1rios de altera\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas, op\u00e7\u00f5es de gest\u00e3o, e condi\u00e7\u00f5es florestais. No entanto, o estudo de H\u00f6rl et al. (2020) que rev\u00ea as atuais recomenda\u00e7\u00f5es para a gest\u00e3o florestal adaptativa  face \u00e0s altera\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas revelou que a maioria das estrat\u00e9gias est\u00e1 longe de ser robusta, especialmente no que diz respeito a m\u00faltiplos objetivos de gest\u00e3o florestal. A RDM tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 uma ferramenta para uma tomada de decis\u00f5es pol\u00edticas eficientes sobre o pagamento de servi\u00e7os do ecossistema. A integra\u00e7\u00e3o das atitudes e perce\u00e7\u00f5es dos interessados no processo de tomada de decis\u00f5es \u00e9 outra vantagem desta abordagem (RDM).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6rl J., Keller K., Yousefpour R.,<\/strong> 2020. Reviewing the performance of adaptive forest management strategies with robustness analysis. Forest Policy and Economics<\/em> 102289. 10.1016\/j.forpol.2020.102289<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yousefpour R<\/strong>., Augustynczik A. L. D., Reyer Ch. P. O., Lasch-Born P., Suckow F., Hanewinkel M., 2018. Realizing Mitigation Efficiency of European Commercial Forests by Climate Smart Forestry. Scientific Reports<\/em> 8:345, doi:10.1038\/s41598-017-18778-<\/a>w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yousefpour R<\/strong>., Temperli Ch., Jacobsen J. B., Thorsen B. J., Meilby H., Lexer M. J., Lindner M., Bugmann H., Borges J. G., Palma J. H. N., Ray D., Zimmermann N. E., Delzon S.,Kremer A., Kramer K., Reyer Ch. P. O., Lasch-Born P., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Hanewinkel M., 2017b. A framework for modelling adaptive forest management and decision-making under climate change. Ecology and Society<\/em> 22(4):40; doi.org\/10.5751\/ES-09614-220440<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por: Rasoul Yousefpour, <\/strong>Universidade de Toronto1<\/sup> & Universidade de Freiburg2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>Presidente de Economia Florestal e Planeamento Florestal, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2<\/sup> Instituto de Silvicultura e Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o, John Daniels, Faculdade de Arquitectura, Paisagem e Design, Universidade de Toronto, 22 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H4, Canada<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Optimizing forest allocation asks not only for integration of multiple services but also taking into account multiple risks affecting forest processes and functions (Yousefpour et al. 2017). Moreover, climate change is challenging forest resilience and expected to change the severity and frequency of biotic and abiotic disturbances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":7093,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":4,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[296,27,230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2022-october","category-iefc-newsletter","category-risk-management"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"pt","enabled_languages":["gb","fr","es","pt"],"languages":{"gb":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"es":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"pt":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false}}},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQuais s\u00e3o as novas abordagens de decis\u00e3o para lidar com m\u00faltiplos riscos e incertezas na gest\u00e3o dos recursos florestais? - 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