{"id":6950,"date":"2022-11-21T10:53:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T09:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.iefc.net\/?p=6950"},"modified":"2023-11-17T14:17:47","modified_gmt":"2023-11-17T13:17:47","slug":"what-are-novel-decision-approaches-to-deal-with-multiple-risks-and-uncertainties-in-forest-resource-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.plantedforests.org\/es\/what-are-novel-decision-approaches-to-deal-with-multiple-risks-and-uncertainties-in-forest-resource-management\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1les los enfoques de decisi\u00f3n novedosos para hacer frente a los m\u00faltiples riesgos e incertidumbres en la gesti\u00f3n de los recursos forestales?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Wind
Da\u00f1os por el viento en la Selva Negra, mayo de 2022 (Fotograf\u00eda: Rasoul Yousefpour)<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1les son los enfoques de decisi\u00f3n novedosos para hacer frente a los m\u00faltiples riesgos e incertidumbres en la gesti\u00f3n de los recursos forestales?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La optimizaci\u00f3n de la asignaci\u00f3n de los bosques requiere no solo la integraci\u00f3n de m\u00faltiples servicios, sino tambi\u00e9n tener en cuenta los m\u00faltiples riesgos que afectan a los procesos y funciones forestales (Yousefpour et al. 2017). Adem\u00e1s, el cambio clim\u00e1tico est\u00e1 desafiando la resiliencia de los bosques y se espera que var\u00ede la gravedad y la frecuencia de las perturbaciones bi\u00f3ticas y abi\u00f3ticas. La evaluaci\u00f3n multiriesgo del ecosistema forestal es la clave para adaptar los recursos forestales a las condiciones futuras y a las demandas de la sociedad de servicios ecosist\u00e9micos. Adem\u00e1s, los procesos forestales est\u00e1n sujetos a la incertidumbre debido a la din\u00e1mica de los sistemas naturales y a la profunda incertidumbre inherente al futuro cambio clim\u00e1tico, ya que no somos capaces de asignar probabilidades al conjunto de todos los escenarios plausibles de cambio clim\u00e1tico. Por lo tanto, los enfoques basados en procesos son esenciales para considerar los cambios en el clima y crear expectativas sobre los resultados de la gesti\u00f3n forestal basados en la din\u00e1mica de los ecosistemas forestales y el calendario de las intervenciones de gesti\u00f3n en el horizonte de planificaci\u00f3n. Cualquier expectativa econ\u00f3mica deber\u00e1 tener en cuenta los flujos de caja futuros (costes e ingresos) y descontarlos a un tiempo de referencia para decidir sobre soluciones alternativas de gesti\u00f3n forestal. Los conceptos de Valor Actual Neto y Valor de Expectativa de la Tierra se utilizan en la silvicultura para tener en cuenta las preferencias temporales utilizando un tipo de descuento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los enfoques de toma de decisiones son necesarios para hacer frente a los problemas se\u00f1alados anteriormente. La toma de decisiones robusta (RDM) ofrece una oportunidad \u00fanica para optimizar los resultados forestales bajo una profunda incertidumbre (Yousefpour et al. 2018). Cambia la optimizaci\u00f3n nominal por la robustez en las peores condiciones sujetas a un conjunto de escenarios de cambio clim\u00e1tico, opciones de gesti\u00f3n y condiciones forestales. Sin embargo, el estudio de H\u00f6rl et al. (2020) que revisa las recomendaciones actuales para la gesti\u00f3n forestal adaptativa bajo el cambio clim\u00e1tico revel\u00f3 que la mayor\u00eda de las estrategias est\u00e1n lejos de ser robustas, especialmente en lo que respecta a los m\u00faltiples objetivos de la gesti\u00f3n forestal. El RDM es adecuado tambi\u00e9n para la b\u00fasqueda de pol\u00edticas directas de decisiones eficientes sobre el pago de los servicios ecosist\u00e9micos. La integraci\u00f3n de las actitudes y percepciones de las partes interesadas en el proceso de toma de decisiones es otra ventaja del RDM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6rl J., Keller K., Yousefpour R.,<\/strong> 2020. Reviewing the performance of adaptive forest management strategies with robustness analysis. Forest Policy and Economics<\/em> 102289. 10.1016\/j.forpol.2020.102289<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yousefpour R<\/strong>., Augustynczik A. L. D., Reyer Ch. P. O., Lasch-Born P., Suckow F., Hanewinkel M., 2018. Realizing Mitigation Efficiency of European Commercial Forests by Climate Smart Forestry. Scientific Reports<\/em> 8:345, doi:10.1038\/s41598-017-18778<\/a>-w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yousefpour R<\/strong>., Temperli Ch., Jacobsen J. B., Thorsen B. J., Meilby H., Lexer M. J., Lindner M., Bugmann H., Borges J. G., Palma J. H. N., Ray D., Zimmermann N. E., Delzon S.,Kremer A., Kramer K., Reyer Ch. P. O., Lasch-Born P., Garcia-Gonzalo J., Hanewinkel M., 2017b. A framework for modelling adaptive forest management and decision-making under climate change. Ecology and Society<\/em> 22(4):40; doi.org\/10.5751\/ES-09614-220440<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par: Rasoul Yousefpour,<\/strong><\/em> Universidad de Toronto1<\/sup> & Universitad de Freiburg2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>C\u00e1tedra de Econom\u00eda Forestal y Planificaci\u00f3n Forestal, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2<\/sup>Instituto de Silvicultura y Conservaci\u00f3n, John Daniels, Facultad de Arquitectura, Paisaje y Dise\u00f1o, Universidad  de Toronto, 22 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Optimizing forest allocation asks not only for integration of multiple services but also taking into account multiple risks affecting forest processes and functions (Yousefpour et al. 2017). Moreover, climate change is challenging forest resilience and expected to change the severity and frequency of biotic and abiotic disturbances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":7093,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":4,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[296,27,230],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2022-october","category-iefc-newsletter","category-risk-management"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"es","enabled_languages":["gb","fr","es","pt"],"languages":{"gb":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"es":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"pt":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false}}},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfCu\u00e1les los enfoques de decisi\u00f3n novedosos para hacer frente a los m\u00faltiples riesgos e incertidumbres en la gesti\u00f3n de los recursos forestales? - 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